My friends and readers have been asking me what happened to MH370 since I am an airline pilot with more than 25 years of seniority; and I also write for Airways magazine and wrote a memoir 13,760 Feet—My Personal Hole in the Sky that addresses life through a major airline tragedy (TWA Flight 800 and the loss of my fiancée Susanne). Like most of the world, I have been following this situation, and I have refrained from adding to all the speculation—waiting and watching for facts to reveal the mystery—until now. The more details that become available, the better the possible picture comes into focus—and it scares me. So I share this guess with you all because we (the world) cannot get caught with our pants down again.
I wouldn’t have thought that a widebody aircraft could fly up to seven hours undetected by radar or satellites, but now it appears that it has—at least as much as any government is admitting. There wasn’t a system malfunction on the Boeing 777 that prevented communication, or we’d know that by now. I don’t think there was a mid-air explosion or ditching or crash, or we’d know that by now too. Even the Malaysian government has finally admitted that this was a case of foul play—a hijacking.
Here is where my worst fear comes into play. What do the hijackers want? Traditionally they’d want asylum, ransom, and/or their comrades freed from prison. 9/11 caught the world with our pants down and a new breed of sacrificial hijackers killed 3000+ people with four aircraft in a single morning. That was when hijacking transformed into terrorism. But MH370 wasn’t flown into a building or a city center, and it certainly could have been. They could have flown it along the original flight plan and then crashed it into Beijing. They could have turned around—everyone would have assumed it had an emergency and was returning—and then crashed it into Kuala Lumpur. The hijackers had free rein of the sky, and even subtle traces of them—revealed by ACARS data bursts—took days to figure out, so they could have crashed that 777 anywhere within about a seven hour range based on that day’s fuel load. But they didn’t. So WHERE they went is now slightly less important than WHY.
Hijackers, that we should absolutely assume are terrorists, now have control of a heavy, long-range, transport vehicle. It hasn’t been found in pieces in the ocean or sprawled out across a rural field, so we need to assume that it is safely hidden on the ground somewhere. Even if the terrorists only loaded it up with classical explosives, the 777’s cabin and cargo bays capacity could destroy an entire city. And that’s just with traditional ordnance. No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq, but it would be naive to assume that none exist anywhere in the world. I am worried that the first terrorist-controlled weapon of mass destruction (maybe biological, maybe chemical, maybe nuclear) is now being married with the Boeing 777 in some remote airfield. While that aircraft is missing, we need to put our nation at high alert, or red alert, or DefCon-3, or however our government activates the highest military readiness, and alert the rest of the world to do their equivalent. And we need to ask ourselves what is our tolerance to shoot down MH370 upon discovery of it back in flight?
My heart aches for the families of those onboard. Worse than losing their loved ones is the painful hope they are living with now. There are prayers for miracles, as well as shock while trying to hold off the inevitable grief. These people need maximum support from their fellow family and friends right now. I really hope I am wrong, but it seems to me that a terrorist group willing to launch a weapon of mass destruction upon a nation (and WHICH nation should be a discussion of its own in order to best defend it) isn’t going to save the passengers that were originally onboard the terrorists’ new delivery vehicle. Here is what I think happened during the hijacked flight:
At least one 777-qualified pilot was onboard and aligned with the hijacking terrorists. Speculation points to the airline’s co-pilot, but it could also have been one of the passengers who then compromised the cockpit. An hour or two into the flight the cockpit door could have been opened for meals or a bathroom break. I do not know what steps Malaysian airlines employees take to prevent a cockpit breach.
Once in control of the cockpit, the hijacking pilot, and probably at least one accomplice, could have donned oxygen masks and then ‘dumped’ the cabin. All the remaining passengers and crew would pass out from lack of cabin pressure. Then the accomplice—wearing a portable oxygen mask—could have strolled through the cabin clubbing the unconscious passengers one by one. Remember that terrorists are evil, and they have the stomach for things that we can barely imagine. If there was only the pilot acting alone, he could have put the plane on autopilot while he did this and then returned to the cockpit. If the aircraft remained high enough long enough, the passengers would asphyxiate without the need for bloody violence. As a pilot, I am appalled by these thoughts, but they are a very real possibility. Either way, after twenty or thirty minutes, only the hijacker(s) would have remained alive in this scenario.
If this is what happened to MH370, passengers and security personnel will likely make my work life even more difficult. Or perhaps passengers will begin choosing their airline based on the screening standards of its pilots. I don’t know for sure, but changes will inevitably develop out of this event. Politicians can’t help legislating retroactively.
The fact that the transponder was turned off, and eventually the ACARS stopped sending data blasts, indicates that at least one hijacker was trained in the 777’s systems. He or they were not 9/11-esque terrorists who learned to fly without learning how to land, because they planned to fly the ill-gotten aircraft into a building instead of onto a runway. Let’s assume there were at least two acting together. More than likely these terrorists pre-planned a route that would avoid radar detection, as they understood it. An airline pilot would know where he needed to make position reports on previous flights because radar coverage was not available. Similarly, non-airline-employee terrorists could obtain this information through research if they planned this hijacking well in advance, as they tend to do.
So where does this leave us? In a heap of danger, that’s where. Until we actually KNOW what happened to MH370, we need to BE PREPARED for what can happen next. It seems that there is a lot of speculation and hindsight in the media, and not enough looking ahead. When that 777 re-appears on radar or a satellite display, there won’t be much time to think about what to do. Either the world’s military acts immediately, or terrorists have an opportunity to ratchet up their level of destruction to previously unimagined levels. This is not a time for wishful thinking; this is a time for preparation for immediate action. There as a Boeing 777 at large, and very possibly it is in flyable condition and in the hands of terrorists. Do we as a peace-loving people have the foresight and will to actively shoot down an airliner when it re-appears? It won’t take to the sky again with innocent intentions. That is my worst fear, and I wrote this hypothesis with the hope of preventing it from becoming reality. Maybe I’m wrong, but if I am right, can we afford to wait and see? At the bare minimum, we should be on high alert until that aircraft is found—either intact, or in pieces as a result of a tragedy other than this hijacking scenario.
Here is my discussion of this blog on Boston Herald Radio 3/17/2014:
22 minutes long.
Jack says
I have this same idea from a few days.
And if it’s possible to change transponder identity, possible terrorist can try eliminate another plane on route, and finish the route with stolen MH370 with eg nuclear weapon (N.Korea maybe ??)
Wingsandwaves says
You better be thinking capability for large fuel load. You bring an airliner down to fly under radar you have just created a fuel guzzling monster.
Alex says
My god. This entry just put this whole thing into a different perspective for me. I even went as far as to ponder with the idea of extraterrestrials, but using this jet as a weapon hadn’t crossed my mind, until now. Scary to think about it because it sounds very possible….
MLB says
Good morning everyone. I have approved everyone’s posts, including a few snarky ones, in the effort to keep an open dialog. The only comments that I didn’t approve are a couple with foul language–a very small percentage of the total contributuions.
My opinion is exactly that: a worst case speculation. I hope I am wrong, but if I am not, then the terrorists have only one step left to go: fly the plane again to its intended destination for a devastating impact. Some have asked me why they didn’t do it right away? Let me speculate (guess) on that. As some of you have mentioned, perhaps they are waiting for a specific event–the nuclear meeting at the Hague–or another specific gathering. Or, maybe one part of their scheme did not go as planned. Perhaps the 777 was damaged upon landing at an unimproved field and even now the terrorists are trying to buy or steel parts to repair it. So by luck, we have some extra time to try to locate it before they can take flight again.
Some point out the 7-hour range the aircraft had the day it disappeared. That was based on the fuel load to Beijing (plus normal reserves in case of a rejected landing and a second approach, holding, or other delays). But once the plane has landed somewhere, it could be refueled to hold somewhere near 16 hours of fuel. A 777 pilot could tell us exactly, but that’s the ballpark. The 777 was made for long-range flying. Not many aircraft are designed for longer, so it might be the range of the aircraft rather than its jumbo size (or both) that made this a desirable type to hijack. Even if the plane took the southern arc back to Malaysia where either pilot would be more familiar with the airports, radar coverage, etc., 16 hours of fuel could take it to many populated places on its next flight. What concerns me is the elaborate simulator in the captain’s house. I know many pilots and none of us have our own elaborate simulators. Maybe some have Microsoft Flight Sim for fun flying small airplanes again, or some have software for our regular computers that allow us to study specific airplane systems prior to training or recurrent training, but nothing like what I saw on TV that the MH370 captain had. My fear is that he was practicing flying lower and lower level: 100 feet above the water, then 50 feet above the water, then 30 feet, 20… in preparation for his next radar-avoiding mission. He might have been finding out just how low he could go without crashing the jet. Yes, this is speculation, but that’s exactly what we need to do from now until the aircraft is found, so we can prepare for the worst case scenarios that we can collectively come up with, and prepare for them.
Thanks for your interest, questions, and comments. MLB
Aussie says
You sent your theories anywhere higher? I’ve thought the same all week. Just hope the military is thinking the same as you.
John Homman says
Entirely possible. However, a nuke can fit in a much smaller airplane. Why use such a large one that is much more detectable? It was not a pilot suicide, or he would have just nosed dived into the ocean. It wasn’t a hijacking for money or we would have heard the ransom demands by now. It more than likely was not a terrorist act as they was no “spectacular conclusion” – and they love spectacular events. Unless of course they intend to use it later and achieve the spectacular means. But this scenario would play out very soon, if not already. They would not hold onto the plane long for fear of being detected. The world waits….
Scott Campbell says
The fact that we have not heard about ransom demands does not necessarily mean that none have been given. There could be ongoing negotiations…….possibly al Qeada trying to get KSM released….. This is a strange saga and almost anything is possible. Before 911, we didn’t think of aircraft as weapons. I think many of the theories offered are plausible. With plenty of money, plenty of time, and a disregard for life, who knows what is possible?
Eric-Jan Oud says
In the line of possible targets for a terrorist attack, I was more thinking of the Nuclear Security Summit in The Hague (The Netherlands / Western Europe) on 25/26 March. 56 of the world’s leaders at one place…
Range from Kazachstan is no major issue for a 777. Getting there undetected is more of a challenge. The “in-flight replacement scenario” sketched out in one of the previous answers could work for that…
There’s 2 fully armed F-16’s up in the air defending Dutch airspace 24/7, mandated to intercept any blip on the radar screen (especially primary radar, with no secondary surveillance radar counterpart). But flying back to Schiphol as KL401 would not soon raise suspicion…
Tim says
Based on the fuel load (enough to reach Beijing plus reserve), the last known heading (NW) plus the known engine running time, the projected destination would be northern Pakistan.
@shooter6 says
My thoughts and fears, exactly.
EW says
If this were correct, then the next phase may prove difficult. A 777 with no flight plan and no electronic means of credible authentication flying out of an area where a plane went missing might just get noticed and would be shot down very quickly indeed.
PS says
Good analysis, and scary possibility.
But, this possibility has always existed. All Over the world, including those rogue countries, there are thousands of airplanes that are flying domestically or crossing their neighboring borders. There are many unregulated airlines that have fleets of tens of airplanes.There are many populated cities in those regions in the world which could easily be targeted by using those airplanes before any of the air controllers could verify the plane’s identity and do anything to force them out of that airspace. Bad guys can take any airplane of their choice and use it for this purpose. They really didn’t need to get one from developing/ developed world.
Raju Shinde says
Also … Was Malysia sleeping when it found the transponders switched off [ Either /Or Malfunction/ Deliberately ] on the 777. Or was it advised to sleep and let 370 pass over its skies for hours and dissappear…hush hush…
If the Malaysian Defense had pings from an unknown Boeing with its transponders switched off, why was it not engaged, intercepted, neutralised/ destroyed while flying over its airspace, unidentified…!!! Will it uncover this and open it to media after days and weeks???
Ladies and Gentlemen…Doesnt all this ring a bell.
Raju Shinde says
May be… MH 370 had nothing to do with Malaysia barring its Name and Origin… 25 Nations , mostly developing ones, without access to latest surveillance and defense systems are on toes in search of missing 370.
Probably it a simple defense game played by our developed brothers to sell and install all these latest defense gadgets to developing ones under the guise of humatarian help. It also aims at Indias ever growing economic powers and influential strength, The Andamans,extremely strategic for India, and needless to say,The control of important ‘Black Waters’ of the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean.
ed says
this story would win an oscar if made by hollywood better copyright it soon
Gabby says
I doubt it’s in the Ocean. Why all the work put into hijacking it just to crash it into the ocean? No way! It was taken to a secret location until they decide to use it. Probably for bombing Israel or USA. God help us.
Eric says
I have a theory on the missing Malaysia airliner. If the plane lost pressurization and the pilots failed to properly preflight their oxygen masks thinking that the oxygen was turned on when in fact it was turned off could be one event. I have encountered this myself with the oxygen turned off and the lines still pressurize people think that their oxygen is on which is why I bleed all the pressure out of the lines when I turn the O2 off. The pilots now euphoric before they passed out fumbling around the cockpit (FO) turning the transponder off, changing the code to squawk the proper emergency code while the Captain turning the airplane around. If the plane continued on flying and ran out of fuel, what would the autopilot do when the engines quit running (maintain airspeed and sacrifice altitude) and how would that Aircraft impact in the ocean? Slightly nose down glide impact and sunk to bottom. Passengers oxygen along with flight attendant oxygen is not under pressure demand and only last for 15 minutes. They would’ve all passed out eventually too. If this theory is not good I’m going to go with the aliens! Just food for thought.
Events
1. Pilots O2 turned off.
2. Pilots did not properly preflight their O2 masks -or-
3. Pilots Preflighted their O2 masks and failed to ensure the O2 was turned on and the tank was full.
4. Flight loses pressurization, Pilots don their O2 masks and have minutes of O2 in the line before they run out of O2.
5. Pilots brief Flight Attendants and Flight Attendants are at their stations with their O2 masks on and assisting passengers as needed.
6. Most passengers are sleeping and confused.
7. Passenger O2 only lasts 15 minutes and is not under positive pressure.
8. Captain turns Aircraft back while the First Officer changes the transponder code to emergency code. Prior to changing the Transponder code pilots are taught to place the Transponder to standby when changing the code. First Officer may have simply forgot to turn the transponder back on.
9. Pilots O2 runs out Pilots pass out plane flys on until out of fuel.
10. Autopilot still engaged, plane descends into ocean intact and sinks to bottom.
Adam Shaw says
Rational, knowledgeable and intelligent post. Hope you’re right.
Julian says
Nice theory but given the sheer amount of SAR aircraft searching and 20 satellites deployed in that area searching, they would have found debris. They have found no debris. The aircraft did not crash into any ocean. The US Govt are on to something big, or else they would not have dispatched a destroyer & sent into over to the Nicobar Islands at warp speed.
Joop Janssen says
Potential targets: nucleair summit the hague?
Alan says
“My friends and readers have been asking me what happened to MH370 since I am an airline pilot with more than 25 years of seniority…” – What your friends and readers may not understand is that being a seasoned pilot doesn’t make you an authority on anything other than, well, being a pilot. They erroneously.think that because you’re a pilot that you somehow know what magically happened. And rather than tell them, “I have no way of knowing”, you write a story based on a “guess”. A wild, crazy guess that has no foundation in you being a pilot. Anybody, including a basket-weaver, could have come up with this scenario if asked to do so.
Mark D. says
I had thought that it could very well be a dry run for something else in a different location. The biggest question for me, (and it may be that I simply missed the report saying so), have they searched areas close to where it took off? Other questions include: could the plane already have been landed and the basic ACARS equipment deliberately left on to give folks the impression it was still in the air?
Observer says
Could the plane have changes the transponder midiar and continued as a different commercial flight? (The equivalent of changing the number plates on a stolen car?)
Michele says
My question is- Everyone keeps saying the plane only had so much fuel, and refueling such a large amount couldn’t go unnoticed. Terrorists plan things far in advance. With that being said, couldn’t they somehow have stocked up on smaller amounts of fuel for a long period of time? Is that too far out of the box?
Raymond says
Hi Mark,
I could be wrong but my understanding is that the pilots were to calculate total fuel required (which includes data such as payload, total fly time, etc) during the Navigation Flight Plan. Reports now showed that the plane was flying for another 7 hours after the transponder was switched off.
Now assuming the payload remained constant – knowing the “normal” flight time from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing is about 6 hours, the pilots actually asked to fuel the plane up with, at least, 2+ hours in excess.
Wouldn’t it be an uncommon act for a pilot to request for excessive fuel in that amount? Why would no one question the need for the excessive fuel? Is there no control/verification process?
Thanks for the post.
Raymond
Steve says
This plane has landed somewhere and is being very well hidden. There have been no ransom demands made as I see it due to lack of hostages. No survivors=no witnesses. I am getting a very very bad feeling about what this plane will be used for.
Mike says
A lot of people in serious denial. These are the facts:
1. The ACARS system turned off.
2. 12 mins later, Pilot asks co-pilot to go to the back of the plane to do some task, like check on a passenger who claims to see something outside on the wing.
3. Pilot locks cockpit door.
4. Then, right in the middle of a “handoff” from one controller to another {a very special time in commercial aviation}, the pilot says good night and then immediately turns off the transponder.
5. One minute later, an abrupt 120 degree turn to the west, pilot dumps cabin pressure and puts on oxygen mask, gets up to as high as 40-44,000 ft for 2-3 mins to kill everyone in the back…on the verge of stall or in stall, plane looses altitude and control regained around 29K ft.
6. Pilot flies jet to avoid commercial radio following standard wave points. (Note: PLANE IS NOT OUT OF CONTROL)
7. Pilot flies purposefully off last radar point on west and then jogs north out of radar range.
Why would he spend all that time doing all those things only to fly the plane into the ocean?
This plane has landed, the passengers have been buried, the plane has been painted, the jet has been refueled with JET-A, and the plane has already been weaponized…probably for DAYS at this point. Get with it already folks. Before 9/11, jets didn’t crash into buildings. And, before 1 2, 3, 2014, pilots could be trusted.
Kabe. says
As an engineer this is the scenario we have been discussing since day 2. The quote “nothing’s impossible just highly improbably…” Springs to mind. But I agree in this day and age we need to be prepared for the worst. Extremists are becoming more sophisticated and daring (I feel they are all trying to out do each other).
sai says
if they wanted to use this as a weapon they would have done it already. Doesn’t make sense to give time for authorities to search. Nevertheless, the fear is set and every theory makes it the world tougher place to live. Can someone come out with a rosy theory that makes for a good read. Like the flight found and everyone’s safe? just for love of life!
Mark says
A plane of that size needs fuel, and a lot of it, to load up a catastrophic payload of sorts and fly again. No way it gets up again in any event without fuel in huge amounts, and thus, detection. It’s in the bottom of the ocean, in my humble opinion….
Cherry Coffrin says
I agree, Mark. But, odd, no debris, no oil slick, nothing…
Karlene says
Mark, I’m thinking you should become a thriller writer! You are now taking the what ifs to the next level. Scarier than any of us want to believe. I hope that you are wrong. I know you hope so to. The most challenging thing is the erroneous info coming out of the media. Has it been confirmed that the FO was aligned with a terrorist group?
Okay… so this is why I don’t think this is the case… If they had a pilot who had the ability to land at this remote location… then why did he fly to FL450, and then descend rapidly. If this is true, sounds like they may have stalled the plane. If they didn’t mess with the trim, she could have found herself flying again after an 16,000 foot descent with even incompetents on board. If the FO was involved, then he might be able to land it someplace… That plane without lighting, vasi, glide slope, going into the jungle at night… just not sure he could pull it off. It was not the narrow body he was use to.
Also.. what’s with the 45,000 foot altitude? Any pilot would know they could just run the cabin up to knock them out.
So many theories coming now……and yours by far is the scariest!
tc7581 says
I think you answer your own question….. Why did the plane manuever the way it did? To make people like you think it is where you think it is….Come on you can’t really think whoever is behind this isn’t smart enough to throw you a few curve balls. Whats the best thing that for the terrorist have everyone believe? That the plane apparently or possibly crashed. Sounds like they convinced you and thus won!
Karlene says
No ‘body’ convinced me of anything. I just don’t think the plane landed for a few reasons. I certainly don’t want to this to be the case. So maybe while we all speculate, we can have our opinions and still have an element of hope involved. Thanks for your comment.
Rob says
Mark, this is totally in the realm of possibilities and I think it is a very plausible scenario. The fact of the matter is, our trust is now fully in the intelligence community. We must count on every single “shady” snake eater out there to keep their ear to the ground and locate this thing. A -777 doesn’t just land and stay parked without at least a few people knowing about it. We must now count on our ability to find and exploit those people so we know what’s going on. A military aircraft shooting it down is the absolute last step in the chain of contingencies and would test our domestic rules of engagement to their absolute limit. Let’s pray we catch them long before it comes to this.
Planepilot says
If the plane was indeed hijacked and the people were kept alive, is there a possibility that they would put them back on the plane filled with explosives or chemicals etc. and create a scenario where the government would have to decide wether to kill all the people on board or risk a city being destroyed?
Thanks
Mike says
No way everyone is alive. You can’t watch 200 passengers with a couple of guys. Someone would have got a cell message out. They are dead. They killed them literally within the first 30 mins of switching off the transponders with the rise in altitude.
Peter says
Who said a couple of guys, maybe they have many guys from the Taliban or other networks watching over them.
Mike Scalise says
I think something similar to Payne Stewart’s Lear jet happened to this trip 7.
I think it’s at the bottom of the ocean.
Third world countries operating an aircraft like this one is a scary thought.
I’d would never fly on an airline belonging to these crap hole countries.
Daniel Garnier says
What a comment. ! No one is asking you to fly. And Malaysia is not a 3rd world country. You baboon!
Jack lindberg says
Any country that’s not the USA or UK are a third world country to these neanderthals! Talk about ignorance, Americans are second to none! It shows in their faltering education system.
knowmee says
USA is superior to all other countries…Accept it
Julian says
knowmee: you really give Americans an extremely bad name. No wonder it has earned the stigma of being a country full of arrogant and ignorant people. You sir have excelled here.
Sam says
I have flown Malaysia Air 6 times in everything from economy to 1st class and short haul to long haul. Every single flight was significantly better than the experiences I have had flying with their American counterparts.
Miah Balsak says
OMFG you are an absolute idiot… Malaysia a third world country?! They have more money than America, not to mention health care and gun control… hahaha I love America, said pretty much no-one outside of the USA… :S
NB says
I think this could well be a dry run for something much bigger. How long can they keep a commercial plane hidden while flying. No, Boeing won’t sell a 777, but there are lots of 737s, 747s, etc configured as cargo carriers that could be sold, and no one would take notice. And cargo carriers I think would be better suited to “hostile activities” than passenger types.
Vera A Holman says
Can you just imagine the toilets after a 7+ hr. flight if 200 scared passengers were on board? No water, no food…over a week…logistically, what are the odds?
Mike says
Yep, that was my scenario about a half a week ago. It is most likely a future gigantic dirty bomb. Probably dumped the cabin and climbed to 45,000 feet as well to a point where there is virtually no atmosphere so he didn’t have to club them and didn’t have to wait as long for people to die. “By 40,000 feet, the average individual will have only 9 to 15 seconds (basically this represents the oxygen that was in their system before the exposure to 40,000 feet).” http://www.allstar.fiu.edu/aero/oxygen.htm.
An experienced pilot could land the plane on a runway under 5000 feet and even on a longer 12,000 foot hard pack dirt runway so it could take off again. Also, I hear it needs a hanger…no it doesn’t. Throw a camouflage net over it, poof done. Finding it from a satellite even with automation would be a 2 billion to one shot since you have no idea where to look. He probably flew it up the Bangladesh corridor east enough of Calcutta and the Burma border to avoid civilian radar and then over the Himalayan mountains where there would be no radar coverage as well. At 4-5am in the morning everyone was asleep. Touch down 7-8am morning somewhere in the Taklamakan Desert. The Chinese/muslim terrorists in that region have already claimed credit within 48 hrs of the incident many, many days ago at this point.
phil974 says
Hi sir ,
I agree with you (although I am not pilot )
Is it possible to detect this plane , according to you , when she will take off and fly again ??
MLB says
It baffled me that the plane disappeared so completely in the first place. But since it did, there is the obvious challenge of detecting it when it reappears, since we don’t even know yet where this might occur, or how the hijackers will mask it. I can think of a few ways they could try, but I don’t want to give them any ideas. But if i can think of them, they probably can too.
Greenguy says
Very nice how you left out the words “until” and “is” when you named this post so that reading the URL would make us think the plane was found – enjoy the extra readers 🙂
MLB says
Greenguy,
“Until” is right in the title of my post, and “speculation,” “possible picture” are in the first paragraph.
Cheers, MLB
Quacky says
He’s referring to the fact that you’ve made the URL misleading for people clicking the link before they actually reach the page. It’s all well and good explaining yourself once you’ve got them here on the site but Greenguy was, rightly, highlighting that you appear to have cherry picked the URL to garner hits.
Interesting article though, don’t get me wrong, just that the link leaves a bitter taste in the mouth knowing that it could have been more honest in its summary,
MLB says
OK Quacky and Greenguy, I now see what you are pointing out. I did not choose the URL, and definitely did not intend to mislead anyone. WordPress chose the URL based on my blog title “High alert Until MH370 is Found.” It must have shortened it for me, and I assure you that was unintentional.
alifibro says
MLB commented on High Alert Until MH370 is Found.
in response to Quacky:
He’s referring to the fact that you’ve made the URL misleading for people clicking the link before they actually reach the page. It’s all well and good explaining yourself once you’ve got them here on the site but Greenguy was, rightly, highlighting that you appear to have cherry picked the URL to garner hits. Interesting […]
OK Quacky and Greenguy, I now see what you are pointing out. I did not choose the URL, and definitely did not intend to mislead anyone. WordPress chose the URL based on my blog title “High alert Until MH370 is Found.” It must have shortened it for me, and I assure you that was unintentional.
IN REFERENCE TO THE URL!!
When I 1st came across this blog I saw the title in it”s entirety so not sure where people are seeing the shortened version.
Also just wanted to say to Mark L Berry, I have really enjoyed your blog (as i have been seriously hooked on the missing plane since day 1 of this happening) and the responses to your blog, they are constant in my timeline so it”s definitely given a lot of people something to think about in the last few days especially.
The few idiotic responses you have recieved from brainless idiots should not warrant a response.
LT says
Why hijack out of Malaysia? With a 777 max range of very roughly 5,500nm, what are the possible targets, if any? There doesn’t seem to be any terrorist-typical high value targets within that range, and certainly few to no popular US related targets. To go beyond that range would take a large amount of communication, coordination and infrastructure for landing, takeoff, refuel and/or further transportation of a gigantic plane to a new airfield. It seems more likely that the plan is on the bottom of an ocean somewhere rather than there existing a small sized logistic chain/army moving it around for further devious use. The simplest explanation is that it crashed.
Of course, successful or not, and assuming it was hijacked, we don’t know the intent of the hijackers at this point. Were they going to make demands at some point and if so what would they have been? Also, they were trying to go SOMEWHERE – where were they attempting to fly to?
NB says
Bejing is not a high value target to the Uigher Muslims?
phil974 says
Don’t forget all these rogues ( or islamic/sts ) states ( Libya for instance or Somalia ) where military airfields are not rare :
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/libya/airfields.htm
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/somalia/airfield.htm
Mike S. says
Not enough public information to fully develop that scenario but certainly plausible with what we see so far. You’ve come a long way since writing about paintball. Be well old friend.
Mike S.
Fellow check airman
Sridhar says
Cap,
It’s a Great theory and a most plausible one.Except for one thing,Terrorists rarely loose such chances to planning for ‘future attacks’.They would rather blow up the plane on a suicide mission while their Group called up the News channels and got absolute coverage.Their mindset would be to use the given opp to the fullest to shock us and not let the whole world chase them and sniff them out.That wouldn’t be their style or may be something went wrong after they switched off communication & turned back but could not follow through and complete the Act….
OSR says
My first thought was that it couldn’t be an act of terrorism due to the same ideas you mention. Generally, these terrorists claim events as or shortly after they happen; however, in light of recent developments, I’ve been thinking along the same lines as MLB. If it is an act of terrorism, the intent would seem to be the creation of a longer range weapon of mass destruction. Let’s face it, we already know they have weapons of mass destruction at their disposal. All they lack is the ability to deliver it to an intended target. I would almost guarantee you, should this theory be accurate, if and when this plane reappears they will then use the “given opp to the fullest.” I don’t think they would hesitate to take a risk for a chance at a much, much bigger event. It’s a frightening thought… and one the world can’t afford to ignore.
Mark Luijendijk says
People are focussing on the maximum range the plane could have flown before it would have run out fuel. But what about refuelling in the air? Not a common thing for a commercial airline, but it can be done, can’t it? And manipulating/spoofing the transponder? Is that a big deal?
My theory goes a bit further than the analysis above. I wouldn’t be surprised if a similar 777-200 will be replaced in-flight by the hijacked and disguised MH370. In that way it can fly unnoticed to any destination in the world and drop its deadly load just like that.
News UCanUse (@zapher134) says
This plane can’t be refuel mid air
Brian McCooley (@BrianMcCooley) says
Commercial airliners do NOT have the ability to refuel in mid-air. Even if it could be done, very few countries have the assets to do it and they wouldn’t be a chance for them to be used unauthorized. It would be more difficult to get a tanker than a 777. They are so rare, even in the USAF, that exercises have to be rescheduled around availability.
Rebecca says
Scary theory. My father is a retired airline pilot and I have been calling him everyday to get his opinion on what could be happening. He hasn’t come out and said it completely, but he keeps circling the idea that the plane landed somewhere. Seems like he is thinking what you’re thinking….lets hope you are both wrong.
Anon says
Can I add a more frightening scenario to your own?
The passengers are alive and onboard and in the mere seconds before Paris or San Francisco is wiped from a nuclear blast, the world would have to decide between 239 souls or 5 (?) million.
Brad says
I’ve been saying exactly the same. Worse case scenario could be as bad as parachuting a three figure number of paratroopers in to a city of their choice (military static line parachutes are freely available in large numbers for as little as $20 each), they could quickly modify the plane to spray or vent chemical agents (was everything accounted for in Syria last year?) they could carry explosives, or worse, airborne bombs with simple altimeter actuated fuzes, then when all that’s done, crash the jet in to a football stadium or concert venue, etc. Really doesn’t bear thinking about but unfortunately, that’s EXACTLY what we should be thinking about.
Low cost, easily do-able, all they need is a large aircraft.
Think 9/11 and Mumbai rolled together and multiplied by ten.
Mark L Berry says
Josh, the flight could be in the ocean somewhere still undiscovered, but the evidence so far implies that the flight flew well beyond the initial incident, and that makes a successful hijacking a very real and scary possibility. Best to prepare for the worst while hoping for a less nefarious outcome.
Pete (groupeter), the time of useful consciousness for a cruising airliner is measured in seconds. Also, a hijacking with this much planning would certainly include additional resources on the ground at whatever alternate destination was planned. And if one of the original pilots was a hijacker, then there’s no question about the level of technical knowledge they would have about the aircraft.
ara says
If they can make such a sophisticated bomb, do you think they can afford to buy a plane too?
Eric says
Probably, but Boeing would not sell a 777 to a terrorist organization.
Josh says
How can you be so sure that the flight didn’t went into sea. It takes months and even years to spot the flight…
alifibro says
This is my theory too, only I hoped that everyone would be alive. I am quite sure the plane is hidden somewhere for use at a later date.
Great to hear a pilots perspective, thanks for the blog
Ali
Chris says
Is it true that weather satellites take constant photos of the whole earth then planes are removed for use on news channels? If so, why has NOBODY mentioned them or how their data can be checked. It’s position could be worked out as it crossed the sky, surely.
guopeter says
Provoking article, some misses in this analysis:
1. Expert needed to shut off communication system underneath the cabin deck
2. Pilot’s “alright, goodnight” came AFTER the shut-off of a tracking system, no hijack code was sent
3. A major failure of hijacks in history comes from the inability to control the passengers. Knocking out 239 passengers without raising alert is not probable, even in a low-pressure environment.
4. If the Boeing 777 landed 5-7 hours later, the land would have to take place in the dark. Ground support is a must
Here’s an analysis to complement yours: http://petesinsights.wordpress.com/2014/03/15/mh370-hijacked-scenario-analysis/
Allan says
I had been wondering what your thoughts have been since this started, figured you’ld share them when you felt it right..You paint a picture of the unthinkable, but a very real possibility…I hope you are wrong just as i’m sure you are too..I hope the world is paying attention now..God help us all if they are not
Neelam Mathews says
Fantastic analysis. A query- can a large plane likethat land somewhere without being detected? Doesnt it need a large runway? Cheers. Neelam
capnaux says
Mark,
Very sobering scenario. You and Karlene Petitt have both come up with VERY plausible possibilities. In her scenario, the terrorists failed. In yours…
Almost too chilling to envision!
Thanks for posting.
Eric