My friends and readers have been asking me what happened to MH370 since I am an airline pilot with more than 25 years of seniority; and I also write for Airways magazine and wrote a memoir 13,760 Feet—My Personal Hole in the Sky that addresses life through a major airline tragedy (TWA Flight 800 and the loss of my fiancée Susanne). Like most of the world, I have been following this situation, and I have refrained from adding to all the speculation—waiting and watching for facts to reveal the mystery—until now. The more details that become available, the better the possible picture comes into focus—and it scares me. So I share this guess with you all because we (the world) cannot get caught with our pants down again.
I wouldn’t have thought that a widebody aircraft could fly up to seven hours undetected by radar or satellites, but now it appears that it has—at least as much as any government is admitting. There wasn’t a system malfunction on the Boeing 777 that prevented communication, or we’d know that by now. I don’t think there was a mid-air explosion or ditching or crash, or we’d know that by now too. Even the Malaysian government has finally admitted that this was a case of foul play—a hijacking.
Here is where my worst fear comes into play. What do the hijackers want? Traditionally they’d want asylum, ransom, and/or their comrades freed from prison. 9/11 caught the world with our pants down and a new breed of sacrificial hijackers killed 3000+ people with four aircraft in a single morning. That was when hijacking transformed into terrorism. But MH370 wasn’t flown into a building or a city center, and it certainly could have been. They could have flown it along the original flight plan and then crashed it into Beijing. They could have turned around—everyone would have assumed it had an emergency and was returning—and then crashed it into Kuala Lumpur. The hijackers had free rein of the sky, and even subtle traces of them—revealed by ACARS data bursts—took days to figure out, so they could have crashed that 777 anywhere within about a seven hour range based on that day’s fuel load. But they didn’t. So WHERE they went is now slightly less important than WHY.
Hijackers, that we should absolutely assume are terrorists, now have control of a heavy, long-range, transport vehicle. It hasn’t been found in pieces in the ocean or sprawled out across a rural field, so we need to assume that it is safely hidden on the ground somewhere. Even if the terrorists only loaded it up with classical explosives, the 777’s cabin and cargo bays capacity could destroy an entire city. And that’s just with traditional ordnance. No weapons of mass destruction were found in Iraq, but it would be naive to assume that none exist anywhere in the world. I am worried that the first terrorist-controlled weapon of mass destruction (maybe biological, maybe chemical, maybe nuclear) is now being married with the Boeing 777 in some remote airfield. While that aircraft is missing, we need to put our nation at high alert, or red alert, or DefCon-3, or however our government activates the highest military readiness, and alert the rest of the world to do their equivalent. And we need to ask ourselves what is our tolerance to shoot down MH370 upon discovery of it back in flight?
My heart aches for the families of those onboard. Worse than losing their loved ones is the painful hope they are living with now. There are prayers for miracles, as well as shock while trying to hold off the inevitable grief. These people need maximum support from their fellow family and friends right now. I really hope I am wrong, but it seems to me that a terrorist group willing to launch a weapon of mass destruction upon a nation (and WHICH nation should be a discussion of its own in order to best defend it) isn’t going to save the passengers that were originally onboard the terrorists’ new delivery vehicle. Here is what I think happened during the hijacked flight:
At least one 777-qualified pilot was onboard and aligned with the hijacking terrorists. Speculation points to the airline’s co-pilot, but it could also have been one of the passengers who then compromised the cockpit. An hour or two into the flight the cockpit door could have been opened for meals or a bathroom break. I do not know what steps Malaysian airlines employees take to prevent a cockpit breach.
Once in control of the cockpit, the hijacking pilot, and probably at least one accomplice, could have donned oxygen masks and then ‘dumped’ the cabin. All the remaining passengers and crew would pass out from lack of cabin pressure. Then the accomplice—wearing a portable oxygen mask—could have strolled through the cabin clubbing the unconscious passengers one by one. Remember that terrorists are evil, and they have the stomach for things that we can barely imagine. If there was only the pilot acting alone, he could have put the plane on autopilot while he did this and then returned to the cockpit. If the aircraft remained high enough long enough, the passengers would asphyxiate without the need for bloody violence. As a pilot, I am appalled by these thoughts, but they are a very real possibility. Either way, after twenty or thirty minutes, only the hijacker(s) would have remained alive in this scenario.
If this is what happened to MH370, passengers and security personnel will likely make my work life even more difficult. Or perhaps passengers will begin choosing their airline based on the screening standards of its pilots. I don’t know for sure, but changes will inevitably develop out of this event. Politicians can’t help legislating retroactively.
The fact that the transponder was turned off, and eventually the ACARS stopped sending data blasts, indicates that at least one hijacker was trained in the 777’s systems. He or they were not 9/11-esque terrorists who learned to fly without learning how to land, because they planned to fly the ill-gotten aircraft into a building instead of onto a runway. Let’s assume there were at least two acting together. More than likely these terrorists pre-planned a route that would avoid radar detection, as they understood it. An airline pilot would know where he needed to make position reports on previous flights because radar coverage was not available. Similarly, non-airline-employee terrorists could obtain this information through research if they planned this hijacking well in advance, as they tend to do.
So where does this leave us? In a heap of danger, that’s where. Until we actually KNOW what happened to MH370, we need to BE PREPARED for what can happen next. It seems that there is a lot of speculation and hindsight in the media, and not enough looking ahead. When that 777 re-appears on radar or a satellite display, there won’t be much time to think about what to do. Either the world’s military acts immediately, or terrorists have an opportunity to ratchet up their level of destruction to previously unimagined levels. This is not a time for wishful thinking; this is a time for preparation for immediate action. There as a Boeing 777 at large, and very possibly it is in flyable condition and in the hands of terrorists. Do we as a peace-loving people have the foresight and will to actively shoot down an airliner when it re-appears? It won’t take to the sky again with innocent intentions. That is my worst fear, and I wrote this hypothesis with the hope of preventing it from becoming reality. Maybe I’m wrong, but if I am right, can we afford to wait and see? At the bare minimum, we should be on high alert until that aircraft is found—either intact, or in pieces as a result of a tragedy other than this hijacking scenario.
Here is my discussion of this blog on Boston Herald Radio 3/17/2014:
22 minutes long.
Mark L Berry says
Here’s a theory that offers hope for a mechanical explanation. As I have said all along, I hope my worst case scenario is wrong:
http://www.businessinsider.com/malaysia-plane-fire-2014-3
Seb says
I would like to add that I believe it to be rather difficult to buy a used aircraft. Yes, there are plenty at sale. But I would assume that any national or international security organisation (i.e. NSA) is closely monitoring financial transfers of a sum big enough to pay for an airliner. This is attracting more unwanted attention than “just hijacking” a plane. Plus: those old used birds sitting in the Arizona desert need lots of maintenance before they are fit to fly again…
DD says
Can someone explain to me how you can land a 777 either in an airport (airfield), roadway, remote flat landing area in the mountains or wherever without a single soul seeing or possibly more importantly, hearing the roar of a 777? I am betting that is virtually impossible. Thinks about it, the only place this plane could have landed was in the Himalayas…at night. Not going to happen, I don’t care if there was a Sherpa on board. All other areas have decent radar technology and/or are inhabited to the extent that someone would have seen or heard something. Unfortunately for those families of the missing, this plane is at the bottom of the ocean somewhere and not a part of you conspiracy theory.
Richard Oliver says
There is nothing special about jet fuel! It is kerosene that basically gets filtered more.
loudette says
hmmm… you just taught the world how to hijack a plane.
MLB says
I disagree. Previous assumptions were that hijackers lacked sophistication. Even during 9/11 the pilots were only moderately trained to fly as revealed by their lack of interest in learning how to land (when their backgrounds were revealed). The TV news revealed this morning that the aircraft was programmed to turn, indicating a skilled pilot was controlling the plane. Ever since pilots became subjected to passenger screening since 9/11, the union arguments have been that pilots don’t need weapons to hijack airplanes. Whether the Malaysian pilots hijacked the airplane or it was done by skilled passengers, I suspect further background screening of pilots will result as a backlash to this disaster. In the end, it all comes down to people and their intent.
amacfly says
Regarding 9/11 I’ve also been following this site for many years, they have a great deal of extraordinary information. http://pilotsfor911truth.org
Flyguy says
How can they possibly know that the FMC was programmed for the turn without the FDR data?
MLB says
This puzzles me as well.
CCO says
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KTqe5nQeWV0
MLB says
This is acronym soup and could really use commentary from the poster about how it pertains.
Pat says
and anyone with the interest to hijack a plane already knows ALL of this. Don’t be naive.
Peter says
And more
Roger says
Wonderful article, i concur with your assumptions. I’m at disbelief however that there is no fail-safe ensuring oxygen (cabin pressurization) in the cabin whilst in the air, the same way i believe the doors cannot be opened off the ground.
What scares me the most, is this information is now in the public domain to be potentially used for a future attack where it may never have been a consideration previously. Whilst we understand the need for answers, I feel speculating on this is the equivalent to publishing a new vulnerability which would allow people to break into a power grid, bank or government system. It is for this reason I would hope all involved in its disclosure, lobby industry to re-mediate this vulnerability and put in any required processes and fail-safes to ensure this vulnerability will never be exploited.
On a side note, sadly I am leaning towards a government shooting down a potential rogue plane, it would explain much of the confusion.
MLB says
Aircraft systems are designed to be used by pilots who are trained to employ them to safely fly the airplane. No system will ever prevent someone intent on deliberate hostile actions. A car can be used as a deadly weapon, as seen recently at the SXSW festival in Austin, if used improperly. A knife in the kitchen is a tool. A knife in the streets is a weapon. In the end it comes down to people, and their intentions.
Jon says
I would propose that the captain managed to isolate the controls from the Co-pilot, either by rendering him incapacitated, or by locking him out of the cabin . All passengers and other crew were asphyxiated by disabling the internal emergency oxygen system (during on ground walk around – pre-flight checks), and flying at 45,000 ft in an unpressurised aeroplane. The captain (who used a homebuilt Flight Sim to plan his departure) then flew a predetermined route skirting most radar systems while totally electronically blacked out (except for RR telemetry and performance data) flew out into the Indian Ocean till he ran out of fuel and crashed.
If a hijack occurred, where the plane is on the ground, it’s been too long, and any political gain of parading hostages in front of the world media is now gone. China will not sit idly by whilst its’ citizens are being held. Unlike the USA of late, China will flex and it will stomp.
About two years ago as I was leaving Korla in NW China, a plane departing from the same airport as I was, but heading North, was Hijacked by Muslim Chinese. Although not mentioned in the news report, 2 of the 7 hijackers were killed on the spot. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl…k-attempt.html Others were nearly torn apart. Funny how the western media distorted the reports emanating out of china though.
So hijacking is somewhat unlikely given previous Chinese reactions.
Mike says
They could not find Valujet 592 in the everglades. Even though that was 18 years ago, I still think these terrorists crashed this plane into the ocean. The search area was bigger than Asia.
MLB says
The ValueJet crash was found, and swiftly. This from Wikipedia (I know, not the best source to quote):
On the third anniversary of the accident in 1999, a memorial was dedicated to the victims in the Everglades. The memorial, consisting of 110 concrete pillars, is located just north of Tamiami Trail at 25°45′42.61″N 80°40′19.30″W about 11.9 miles west of Krome Avenue in Miami-Dade County and points to the location of the crash site eight miles to the north. The 110 pillars represent the lives of those who perished in the crash.
Jalal Nathu says
I had recently read that a missing flight was found in deep seas after 2 years. However, your theory is highly likely…
Little Book Aviation (@BookofAviation) says
One thing has crossed my mind. If the pilot/pilots decided not on a terrorism outcome but say suicide, if they were to descend to the sea, ditch, and then take everyone with them as the aircraft sank – intact – would there be any way of ever finding it?
marcus says
I have to wonder if a government knows where it is. After all, if they were to reveal that they knew (or had a reasonable idea) then they would, by default, reveal the capabilities of their military radar/satellite tracking. In a region where there are tensions between nations already, maybe that is something they don’t want their neighbours to know…
carole says
@MLB what exactly does a black box do as i have heard people repeatedly ask,’What about the Black box”,is it some sort of equipment that stores data and does and/must every aircraft have one,my thoughts are with the families of those affected
MLB says
There are two “black boxes.” One records voice. One records flight instrument readings. They are inboard to help investigators find the wreckage and determine what happened.
Buskoja says
Mark, what’s your own reaction to Time Magazine’s article on the subject : http://time.com/28244/malaysia-airlines-missing-mh370-computer/
MLB says
The TV news is reporting the same thing this morning.
Keynote says
I remember it said the two with the fake passports were seeking asylum somewhere? am i correct? if i am.. what was the reason for them to run? were they running from their government? if so.. was the plane shot down when that government realized they were on it as a last minute attempt to silence them? were they pulling an edward snowden situation? but didnt make it to safety to speak what they wanted to say. have watched a few hours of this situation on the tv but havent caught all the facts.. event though they repeated say the same thing every 3 minutes with no REAL information other than.. nobody is looking hard enough..
Peter says
They were Iranians. Nor that likely Iran would be able to shoot down an airliner over Gulf of Thailand.
Krishna Agarwal says
If used jets are readily available and the terrorist groups have the money why invite attention before the actual strike??? using a stolen plane to bomb almost ensures a unsuccessful hit. Also jet fuel will be monitored by all agencies and govts which makes its sourcing hard if already not sourced.
Does this theory relax the worries a bit??
Lina S says
Unfortunately I agree with Mark. Hijacking a plane just to land it in another country to demand certain things has been done before. For these people it’s all about making a statement and to show the world they can do something that has never been done before. With every attack they learn from their mistakes. Remember hijacked Air France in 1976? It took 100 Israeli commandos less then an hour to get their people out of Uganda, surely terrorists had learned from that experience. This is something way bigger now. I would love to be wrong. My heart goes out to everyone on board of this plane and to their families.
Sharon says
Thought the same thing from the very beginning because if people new they were going down you would have men on the plane like “Let’s Roll ” from 911 I didn’t know they could do that to the oxygen in the cabin ,how sad ,this whole thing is really scary ,They should start looking on the ground ,Army searching ect ,They could ob built a run way somewhere !!!
Dave Hooper says
Why would it have to be landed at an airport? A road with a straight stretch over a mile should be acceptable if the operation is pre-planned. Many agricultural areas have fuel and broad flat areas and roads as well as large buildings to hide it in. Again, they are not concerned with preventing stone hsips and paint scuffs!
It seems that many (most) countires in that part of the world have NO air-defense capability or they should have noticed something the size of the Goodyear Blimp coming along at whatever altitude and speed, but with no transponder operating, so terrorism is not out of the question. No-one would see it on non-existant radar, so again, an ideal scenario for terrorism
Eva Kupczynski says
What if the terrorists after disabling communication system were afterwards themselves not able to communicate tom the world and to,anounve their victory beforemplaine plunged to the ocean?
amacfly says
Is there any way that the under floor cabin could have been infiltrated by whoever took over the plane before the crew and passengers boarded?
This is a copy-paste – “A two-bunk flight crew rest area is installed on the port side of the flight deck. An optional installation is a crew rest module in the underfloor section. The crew rest module houses six bunks and occupies the same floor area as a standard 96in cargo pallet.”
This seems a lot more likely than either the pilot or co-pilot doing this. The deliberate climb to 45k seems a clear bid to kill everyone on board. If it did then follow that SIA flight, that would take Mossad like expertise in planning, so I wonder Is the plane enough reason to do this or was there something in the hold that they wanted, like maybe gold being shifted to China?
Mark L Berry says
One thing to add. Planes out over the ocean make position reports via HF radio (although some now do this via SatLink). If the hijacked MH370 flight wanted to follow the SIA68 flight over India, the pilot could have listened to the position reports to determine it’s location (and time) and that could account for the maneuvering while he timed his intercept to follow in formation so they’d appear as a single radar blip.
Pointyendboy says
Mark, I have flown this route many times, SQ would have been using ADS and CPDLC with VOMF over the Bay of Bengal not HF. They would have transferred to VHF around 200nm from the Indian Coast. That said you only have to match speed and you could guess the airway they are following. It’s nearly always the same!
C- says
I just get concerned since all of these theories are getting put out there and just giving others more information and ideas. And the thought that they, whomever they may be, are reading all of these speculations and laughing at it all. My heart goes out to all those on board and if they did not survive I just hope it was painless. I pray for them and their families.
Do these terrorists only act in extremely small groups of 2-3? Because others have to know things elsewhere if they were involved in the planning of any aspect. It is all just completely frightening.
Cherry Coffrin says
This is a terrible thing and I am sorry to say this. But, I still believe it has crashed and is at the bottom of the ocean…though, no debris, no word, nothing. It is very strange….
J says
Jim believes there is someone out there with knowledge of where the airplane is and will give in to the greed emotion to take the millions that will be offered for a lead. Maybe it’s just a fisherman who saw a big airplane flying low on an approach and now wonders if …………………
And by the way, I am a private pilot with 10,000 hours over 50 years and understand how to avoid radar as a primary target. Having flown over the Gulf of Mexico several times, even at 17,000 feet, I know Center does not have me on radar even with a transponder. Very low altitudes will keep you under the radar in many places – – especially in mountainous terrain. Jets burn a lot more fuel the lower they fly which reduces their range or they reduce power to save fuel and go much slower.
MLB says
Mostly true, except even when ATC doesn’t have you on their radar, it is possible that military radar is watching you. Military radar is used to predicts threats approaching the border and it reaches way out for an early view. It is true that jets burn a lot more fuel down low than at altitude.
CB says
It was my understanding that oxygen masks automatically deployed in a decompression. Does the pilot have the ability to override them dropping?
MLB says
Not sure how it is done in the 777, but maintenance needs to be able to do it during repairs, so yes, I believe it can be accomplished.
Mike says
Mark, Is it possible that the jet could be rigged or RETROFITTED TO FUEL IN-AIR?? if so, could the scenario that they could provide a tanker jet along with this 777 to make it all the way overseas at low altitude to then surprise our radar systems?? Or perhaps they could simply be planning on blowing up their Jewish neighbors whom they hate passionately.
MLB says
The 777 can’t refuel midair, but it does have quite a long range.
Kevin Kivo says
What is the range? Could it reach the United States from, say, Pakistan/Afghanistan/Kazakhstan?
MLB says
Refueling in air seems highly unlikely. Besides the modification difficulty, a refueling aircraft would be needed, and both would have to remain covert. I applaud creative thinking, but don’t think this worry is necessary. Could fuel tanks be added inside the cabin and connected to the fuel system? I suppose so theoretically, but that would be quite an endeavor.
Alex says
Although I certainly don’t want to dismiss this as a possibility too hastily, I’m a little skeptical that this flight could still be camped out somewhere, even at an abandoned, secluded airport. Surely, days of satellite imaging- which can locate a soccer ball in an ocean, by the way- wouod have detected the plane if it was on land. I think that human intent was probably involved, as a mid-air explosion would have resulted in noticeable debris. But this theory begs the question: why can’t our premier technology locate a sizable object with tracking mechanisms when it can locate even infinitesimal ones? This idea certainly warrants discussion and exploration, but we should not assume this is the case simply because we have no other leads.
Honestly- and I truly don’t mean to come across as disconcerned for those onboard and for thier families, as this is a horrible situation- I’m concerned about the impact this will have on our supply of pilots. Certainly, we can expect the FAA to ramp up what’s already an extensive process of receiving a pilot’s license to ensure optimal security. Combined with the pitiful wages most entry pilots are paid, this will only reduce the incentive to pursue a career in aviation in a time in which the aviation industry is needed more than ever.
Ramboheater says
They had an “expert” on CNN last night talking about how difficult it is for traditional radar to determine the altitude of an airplane without the transponder turned on. How could the traditional Malaysian radar determine altitude changes such as has been mentioned – up to 45,000 feet and down to 23,000 feet? I don’t feel like Malaysia is providing accurate information.
MLB says
Transponders have a level called “Mode C” that tags the radar return with altitude information. Mode C can be turned off while the transponder still reveals the aircraft position. With the transponder turned off, there would not be any altitude information available via radar. Altitude information must have been obtained another way. Possibly through the ACARS information bursts, but I do not know this for sure.
marylyn says
So how many air strips are in the area where this plane could have landed? All of them should have been checked by now wouldn’t you think?
Fthomas says
Over 600! My reply is from the Philippines and I assure you that I am watching this unfold with great interest and a healthy amount of concern (fear) for the families and for aviation in the Pacific Rim! Mr. Berry’s theory has been acted on by Israel.
Matt says
If they are still getting through to peoples phones, why don’t they just track them?
Vin says
It’s worth a try, but I can think of several reasons phone tracking probably wouldn’t work even if the 777 is not under water at this point.
Firstly, phone batteries would be empty by now, which I think would make tracking impossible. Secondly, even when possible, tracking would require a close enough cell antenna tower which is unlikely in a remote mountainous hiding place. Last, even if the 777 is now located near a cell tower and any phones still have batter power, one would think hijackers smart enough to get the scheme as far as they have probably would’ve thought early on to collect and destroy all passenger phones.
sarahn says
They are calling on the equivalent of skype, rather than a real phone number connecting with a cell tower.
Kitsy Simonson says
I believe the airline was blown out of the sky, the government responsible is covering it up. If it were blown out of the sky, it would appear instruments were turned off when actually the whole airplane was turned off.
Uong Jowo says
You should avoid making “political accusation”. We’re dealing with people live here. If it blown off, it will sadden us badly for the lost, but for sure we know it’s over and we know how to handle it.
The fact now, this B777 is MIA!!! No one nor government would like to be in this kind of ordeal, carrying out clueless search and accounting what could be the next worse after …the whole world should worry … As pointed by MLB.
Kris Gabriel says
My theory: Plane had just been serviced, then the ‘hard bank’ seemed to have been jpre-programed. Drones are flown over the Middle East by operators in US. They have invented helicopters that fly by computer. This was a ‘test’ by terrorists to see if they could commander a jet, take over the computer and no matter what the Captain or co-pilot did, they pilots could not make the computer respond to them. So the terrorist take the plane out over the Indian Ocean. They test it to see if they can change altitudes (kill everyone in the process) and ‘practice’ flying it over the remote ocean. Terrorist do not want the plane found, because they do not want anyone else to know the new power they have tested. I think that now terrorists can now commander any plane in flight and make it do what ever they want. The world would be at their mercy.
MLB says
I don’t think this is the case, but I know someone who experiments with drones. I will try to get him to address this post.
Vigilant1 says
You are right – the world needs to be on highest alert and use whatever satellite, drone, on-the-ground spies, phone tapping, and any other technology to find that plane and kill or arrest ALL those involved, and watch out for any large unexpected aircraft and shoot it down over low population area before it reaches any country that is not among the “Axis of Evil.” I also wouldn’t assume it re-emerges as a 777. I would have to think that these guys could alter any identification signals to make radar, satellite or camera from far away think it is a similar sized 2-engine aircraft – 767, 787, 757, Airbus. Everyone should assume this is an evil plot to kill millions.
Brent says
Fascinating theory and one that is not outside the realm of possibility. Terrorists are cunning and they spend years planning attacks.
Let us hope you are wrong, but the longer it goes missing, the more I fear you’re on to something.
Brent
DAVIDZ says
I think the powers mentioned that the plane did in fact climb to a very high alltitude, from your experience was it high enough and long enough “up there” to suffocate the passengers?
Because i still live in hope they are all still alive and well in some unfriendly country who is party to this event [movie to follow]
MLB says
David, the Time-of-Useful-Consciousness at 40,000 feet is about 15 seconds.
Gregg Bender says
One question: If this was done by a terrorist group, wouldn’t it have made more sense to simply buy an aircraft on the used market? Most of the terror groups seem to have no problem with money these days. This has attracted LOTS of attention, which is the last thing most conspiracies want or need.
Pat says
EXACTLY my question….. so much easier than dealing with nearly 250 angry, scared passengers who will do anything to get away.
MLB says
Gregg, this is a question worthy of consideration.
Stevie O says
If you wanted to obtain an operational A/C this would be the more difficult AND noticeable. If you intent is to kill millions you dont need a 777 to do it.
MLB says
The question is why did they take a 777? Was it because it was available as an opportunity to one of the crew members? Or was the specific range or payload of the 777 that’s needed for the hijackers’ ultimate goal? These are the questions that need scrutiny.
Brad Price says
That’s the point of terrorism. Why buy an old plane and crash it, when you can take one and hide it at will. With the added bonus of causing alarm, uneease, disrupting the lives of thousands during the act. You then have the ability to use the plane against the very same people you stole it from.
This fits very much the motivations of terrorists.
rtpitta says
Perfect weapon delivery system. These guys are up to no good
Ashley says
As for locating the aircraft, I would guess it was shutdown in front of a large enough hanger to fully house a B777. Possibly even an aircraft painting facility? (In anticipating of governments and or military using satellites to try and locate the aircraft.) That should help narrow down a potential landing area a little bit. Once the aircraft was in a hangar, I’m guessing the satellite comms would not work?
Tim Shoemaker says
Mark, where do you hide a tree? In the forrest of course. Is it concievable that once the TCAS Transponder was disabled that a person flying a plane could fly adjacent and in parallel with another aircraft and go undetected by radar as multiple aircraft? (given the size of the 777)
MLB says
Tim, Perri Dyer just posted Keith Ledgerwood’s blog post on my Facebook page that has a theory to answer your question:
http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68
Click Hamilton says
Good deductive reasoning. Thank you for the rational thought and useful details.
D says
This ties in with (and strengthens) your hypothesis – http://keithledgerwood.tumblr.com/post/79838944823/did-malaysian-airlines-370-disappear-using-sia68-sq68
James Menotti says
I fear is is somewhere in SE Asia being lightened and loaded.
Eddy says
Just wondering. How hard would it be to change the transponder to look like another aircraft. Might this help getting past threats via radar ID?
Eddie says
Why don’t commercial aircraft have electronic signaling devices built in that can not be turned off?
MLB says
Transponders can be turned off to avoid sending erroneous information when they malfunction. Also, hundreds of aircraft all parked at the same airport can cause a cluster on the controller’s radar scope. Additionally, aircraft devices are designed to assist commercial aviation, and the concept of defending against unauthorized use is a new concept and not what the original manufacturers had in mind to deal with.
Herman says
Worst case is if the passengers are still alive and the terrorists plan to load the plane with explosives along with 239 live hostages and then plan to fly it to a city of choice. What a tough choice to make, to shoot down a plane with all the people in it still alive? How will the families view the sacrifice of their family members to save potentially thousands if some country has to shoot down the 777 to save a city or part of a country?
Peter says
You raise an interesting point Herman. They (the terrorists) don’t actually need to load the passengers back on the plane however. They would simply tell the world’s media that the passengers are on the plane to create a political and humanist dilemma as to whether military intervention should be used. Pity the government placed in that position.
Shirley says
Yours is a scary thought considering I have friends on that plane
MLB says
My deepest sympathy for your potential losses. I hope I am wrong and your friends turn up soon.
MLB says
I just added this morning’s interview on Boston Herald Radio:
22 minutes long.
https://soundcloud.com/tomshattuck/mark-berry
Pat says
Mark, your scenario is terrifying. I also believe that you have hit the target 🙁 May I ask one question though… if terrorists went to all this effort to steal a plane, why not just buy a used plane?
I think there are plenty of places that you could buy a used jet. At least Al Kaeda has PLENTY of money. It would certainly be easier not to have all those passengers to kill, especially if they had no intention of demanding ransom.
MLB says
Pat, your question is worthy of collective thinking. Some corporate jets have long range capabilities: Falcon 50s, G-5s, etc.
Jonathan Bartlett says
I’ve been thinking about this all week and asked myself the same question: Why not just buy a used jet? I think the answer is optics. If a terrorist group could pull it off or even make a bold attempt at stealing a jet, loading it with explosives, nukes or a dirty bomb and then fly it into a city of their choice, the terror it would strike on a global scale would be huge. Think of it as PR for terrorists. I hope we’re wrong though.
owned says
Yesterday a car was stolen in NY, be carefull north american and raise the State of Alert!!!
D'Arcy Demianoff-Thompson says
Seriously, you think this is something to be ‘funny’ about! How short is your memory of 9/11 anyway?
Carol B says
Thank you D’Arcy for responding to “owned”, what a terrible remark, THIS is NO laughing matter, what was “owned” thinking…………or were they?
swell says
ah yes, because car theft is EXACTLY the same (and as common!) as a possible airplane hijacking. right. if you’re going for inappropriate “humour” at least try to actually be funny.
J says
Time and resources would be needed to refuel – and last i checked jet fuel isn’t exactly readily available. This would have to be a very coordinated event.
B says
Jet fuel is not readily available, but it IS available. It can be sourced via the black market. It’s not that hard to find, specially for someone who is part of a terrorist organization. You are right when you say that this is would have to be a very coordinated event. But after reading what MLB has said above, it is fair to assume that the necessary preparations were made before taking control of the jet, if in fact it was hijacked.
I’m no pilot, or have any experience with flying. The closest I came to being a pilot was when I got a glimpse into the cockpit when I was 5. But isn’t there generally more than a couple pieces of equipment that transmit the planes location? And with the expertise that I have gained from Air crash Investigations (Mayday), what about the blackbox?
Scott Ferguson says
Jet engines can run on plain gas. It’s a last resort, and the engine would have to be overhauled in short order, but if someone is going to fly it into a building or city center, I doubt they are very concerned about engine overhauls. (I am an airline pilot for a global freight company)
GlueBall says
Conceivably one suicidal pilot, (after colleague went to Lav or galley) locked armored door with latch, then turned and set autopilot course to mid Indian ocean, then switched off the packs, (airframe pressurization) and leisurely asphyxiated along with the rest of the occupants during the 6 hours’ phantom cruise. This gentle death would have spared him the adrenaline filled black-hole drama of violent impact on a moonless night after fuel exhaustion. It’s hard to get into people’s minds, but any normal, reasonable person, for whatever personal challenges can one day snap and come off the rails. …Just as the Ethiopian F/O had locked out the captain over Egypt and “hijacked” himself to Geneva. Many years ago big jets had F/Es and there would always be two crew members in the cockpit during breaks; maybe it’s time to have three pilots in the cockpit on every sector, not just for safety, but for sanity.
Arlys Baker says
Bring back the flight engineer, I say.